Agricultura e produção de energia: um modelo de programação linear para avaliação econômica do PROÁLCOOL

Abstract

The general objective of this paper is an evaluation of the Brazilian National Alcohol Programme (PROÁLCOOL) and its economic impacts. To this end, a dynamic linear programming model, was developed to examine hove the spatial and temporal distribution of agricultural products would take place due to the Programme, the "social cost" of alcohol production, and the direct impact in the country´s balance of trade. The major results of the model shows that the PROALCOOL is not responsible for substantial domestic costs in the form of rising prices for agricultural products and for alcohol, and the impact on the balance of trade is positive and is around US$ 500 millions in the 1983/94 period. The marginal cost of alcohol has shown to be very high, estimated at US$ 89.00 per equivalent barrel of gasoline in the 1987/96 period, and the economic feasibility of the Programme depends on the continuity of a favorable evolution of the efficiency of each producer, as well as the future path of international oil prices.