Um estudo de custo-benefício do PROALCOOL

Abstract

This paper present's an assessment of the social viability of the Brazilian National Alcohol Programme. First, we estimate national parameters values for Brazil following the Little-Mirrlees methods. Based on these estimates, we develop alternative appraisal procedures to determine the social cost of ethanol. The main data base is given 1)), the breakdown of the cost of production of ethanol for the 1981 82 crop year in three states, namely 5ão Paulo, Pernambuco and Goiás. Finally, we undertake a sensitivity analysis based on the probable medium and long term development of the Programme. Our estimates indicate that the social viability of the PROÁLCOOL can be only achieved after the middle of the next decade. However, the shadow pricing framework cannot give a definitive answer to the question of future viability without relying air key assumptions about the future development of the economy, international oil prices and technological progress.