Endividamento externo ótimo em um modelo de equilíbrio dinâmico multissetorial: um estudo de caso para o Brasil

Abstract

This paper shows how a dynamic multisector equilibrium model can he formulated to be able to analyze the optimal borrowing policy of a developing country. It also describes how a non-linear programming model with the proposed features was constructed for Brazil, and discusses the optimal solution of a base case scenario for the economy in the next 20 years. The sensitivity analysis emphasizes the response of the model to different interest rates on foreign borrowing, alternative export expansion and imports requirements scenarios, and different hypothesis with respect to future petroleum prices and domestic petroleum production. The main conclusion is that the optimal long run borrowing policy for Brazil is quite sensitive to the expected future interest rates, and may be different front sortie myopic strategies which are currently being suggested to handle the developing countries foreign debt problems. The other important conclusion is that in the less favorable scenarios - protectionist foreign environment or higher petroleum prices - it is not optimal to postpone the required domestic adjustments by increased foreign borrowing. The usefulness of the model is not restricted to this set of simulations, since ít can he readily adapted to address related issues such as foreign trade, investment and indirect taxation policies.