Produção, distribuição e consumo: determinantes da demanda derivada por transporte e energia

Abstract

A model of the demand for diesel oil in the cargo transportation sector is developed. The model specification includes variables related to swages, population and production (both agricultural and industrial). Estimation is based on 1980 cross-section data on 437 traffic regions in Brazil, assuming a fixed price structure. The demand for diesel oil is found to be more responsive to per capita and total salaries (elasticity e = 0,9) while agricultural and industrial productions have smaller effects (E = 0,3 and E = 0,1, respectively). The value per ton of the agricultural product has also an important influence on the demand for diesel oil (E = 0,6). Policy implications of the results are discussed.