A expansão de longo prazo do sistema elétrico brasileiro: uma análise com o modelo PSE

Abstract

This paper analyzes long-term trends in the evolution of the Brazilian electric power sector, using a planning model (PSE:) which calculates the minimum-cost strategy for the supply expansion required by an exogenous demand scenario. The model is regionalized, dynamic, and incorporates explicitly the stochastic mature of hydroelectric energy generation. The solution technique is non-linear programming, which allows a convenient representation of the progressive exhaustion of the more favorable locations for the plants in the river basins. The inter-regional transmission of large blocks of energy is also considered. The description of the results of the base-case scenario, and of a set of sensitivity runs, show when and how the hydroelectric potential of the northern region could be used, and clarify the role of nuclear and coal generation, and of large scale transmission, in the set of technological alternatives for the sector in the future.