Impacto de reformas paramétricas na previdência social brasileira: simulações alternativas

Abstract

This paper simulates the effects of parametric reforms in the pension system, and the main results are: (a) the present value of the implicit debt is equivalent to 2 GDPs of the year 2005; (b) interruption of real increases in the value of minimum pension benefit from 2011 on would reduce the implicit debt; (c) parametric measures could reduce the actuarial debt to about 40% to 60% of its present levels; (d) measures of greater impact would be the establishment of a minimum required age of 67 for the new workers, as well as the gradual increase for 64 years, for the current workers; (e) the increase in the minimum age required to achieve the benefit LOAS up to 70, and the reduction in 25% of its value would also provide significant fiscal gains.