Política fiscal e crescimento de longo prazo no Brasil: evidências para dados do orçamento função

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to find empirical evidence about the relation between fiscal policy and GDP expansion in Brazil from 1980 to 2008. It evaluates, ultimately, if the recent Brazilian experience gives support to the predictions of Barro’s growth model (Barro, 1990) that government’s expenditure and tax collection can affect the rate of growth of output in the long run. Empirical tests were carried out using time series on government budget collected by functional classification according to a new methodology. The econometric tests were performed by general estimation of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) models using the PcGets algorithm of Hendry and Krolzig (2005) in order to obtain reduced models with the highest degree of statistical adjustment and then to find the long run solution for these models. The results show that the growth of the government’s productive expenditure (mainly that relative to infras-tructure: housing, urban planning, industry, commerce, service, communication, agriculture, energy, mineral resources and transportation) is related to the growth of output in the long run, while the expansion in the tax on income is negatively related to the growth of GDP in the long run.