Efeitos dinâmicos dos choques fiscais do governo central no PIB do Brasil

Abstract

In this research paper it is characterized the dynamic effects of the fiscal shocks of the central government over the economic activity in Brazil for the post Real Plan period. Results were obtained for reference and comparison with international literature through the Impulse-Response analysis, starting from a structural VAR with product, public spending and net taxes. The identification was obtained based on the institutional information of both budget and tributary systems, and through the analysis of the operational procedure of the fiscal authorities. The results obtained are close to the account of the empiric literature for the American economy and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country members: the response of the product to the fiscal shocks is small and has characteristic typically Keynesian.