Modelo de crescimento baseado nas exportações: evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México em perspectiva não linear

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate Export-Led Growth hypothesis through MR-STVAR. If this model is assumed, the pattern of growth alternates among four distinct regimes. Each of them is characterized by the combination of high and low rates of output and export growth. To verify if the value of export quarterly growth increases the forecasting capabilities of output quarterly growth, it is applied a Granger causality test. Hence, this approach contributes to the analysis of traditional literature that, in general, verify export-led growth hypothesis using a Granger causality test in a linear framework. The MR-STVAR was applied to three Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile and Mexico.