Unanticipated monetary policy shocks and the term structure of interest rates in Brazil

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. One is to identify non anticipated monetary shocks using Future Contracts of DI. The second objective is to study the relation between these shocks and the term structure of interest rate. Our empirical evidence suggests that, albeit in a partial manner, the market anticipates most interest rate decisions of the Central Bank. We also show that, in general, non anticipated monetary shocks are capable of affecting the term structure of interest rates.