Estratificação educacional e progressão escolar por série no Brasil

Abstract

This paper decomposes the increase in average educational levels between cohorts born in 1945 and 1985 using the concept of school progression probability. The most important result in this decomposition is that two transitions, to first and fifth grades, explain 79% of the increase in schooling attainment between 1945 and 1985. These two probabilities are, in their turn, used as dependent variables in a hierarchical logistic regression estimated using the PNAD microdata from 12 years during the 1980 and 1990. In level one of the regression were included family and individual variables. In the second level, averages of school inputs in the region where the family lives, such as average schooling of teachers. The most important result is that teacher schooling positively affects the intercept and negatively affects the impact of the mother´s educational level. This means that more investment in schooling will improve both the level and inequality in the educational distribution. This effect is stronger in the transition to first grade and weaker in the transition into fifth grade.