The role of local police on crime reduction: empirical evidence for municipalities in São Paulo state

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the local governments’ security policies, especially the city guards, on combating crimes, here represented by the homicide rate and theft and robbery rate. Using data from municipalities in the State of São Paulo and on the municipal guard from the Munic-IBGE 2004, 2006 and 2009, we estimate a reduction in the homicide rate of 0.03 deaths for each additional municipal guard per 100 thousand inhabitants. Moreover, our estimates suggest that municipalities with municipal guards can reduce the rate of robbery and thefts up to 402 crimes per 100 thousand inhabitants.