Transportation mode demand in the city of Sao Paulo: a public policy analysis

Abstract

This paper estimates the demand for transportation in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (RMSP) and analyzes the effect of public transport policies on users’ choices and on the city traffic. We estimate a discrete choice model using data from the Origin and Destination Survey. The results show that the introduction of bus lanes has little effect on users mode choice, and subway stations cause moderate migration of car users to subways and buses. Conversely, policies that affect the cost of car use have proven most effective. Simulations on the introduction of a congestion pricing show that charging small fees would cause a substantial reduction in the number of vehicles in circulation: a toll of 1 or 5 reais from those driving through the expanded downtown would reduce car traffic in 5% and 50%, respectively.