A spatial analysis of the 2010 Brazilian presidential elections

Abstract

In the 2010 Brazilian presidential election, it was observed that municipalities that were more (less) favorable to the PT are surrounded by municipalities that behaved similarly, an indication of positive spatial dependence. The aim of this paper is to analyze the nature of this dependence. Using spatial econometric techniques, it is observed that both unobservable characteristics as spillovers of local politics are important in explaining this phenomenon. Specifically, it was found that the legislative power of a particular municipality tends to affect the behavior of the voters in neighbors municipalities in a favorable way to their party in presidential elections (positive spillovers), while the local executive power ends up generating negative spillovers. Moreover, it observed that the PT winning in 2010 was strongly associated with maintaining of the geographic base of party support. Municipalities that had a greater economic dynamism, which are less developed and have a higher proportion of the families served by Bolsa-Família program also were more favorable to the PT party.