Crescimento econômico, disponibilidade de divisas e importações no Brasil: um modelo de correção de erros

Abstract

This paper is based on the hypothesis that, in Brazil, imports are a function of the availability of foreign exchange. In such conditions, the balance of payments adjustments have to be done througth import controls, affecting the economic growth. To test this hypothesis this paper shows an alternative specification of the demand functions of total imports and by group of goods, for Brazil, using quarterly data from 1978 to 1998. The set up is based on the assumption that a variable expressing the availability of foreign exchange should be included in these import functions. The Engle-Granger and Johansen procedures were adopted and the econometric results do not reject the above hypothesis.