A valoração das concessões nas florestas nacionais da Amazônia: uma abordagem com opções reais

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to appraise the value of forest concessions based on the option theory to price real asset (ROT). By combining the hypothesis of uncertainties in the volume of logs in a concession and future wood prices with intertemporal maximization of profits, the method provides a more realistic estimate of the market value of concessions than does net present value (NPV), which does not take these uncertainties into account. Comparison between estimates using NPV and ROT shows that the latter are systematically higher. For the reference case, for example, the values using ROT are 140% higher. Since forest concessions are public resources, differences of that magnitude cannot be neglected. The paper also proposes methods to estimate the probability distribution of logging volumes in concession areas along with future prices. The volume distribution is specified in a spatial model as a function of geographic characteristics of the area as well of the neighboring areas.