Tarifação de energia elétrica em face da perspectiva de excesso de demanda

Abstract

For many years the Brazilian electricity industry has been operating close to full capacity and always depending on reasonably favorable climatic conditions to meet demand expansion, in spite of the slow pace of economic growth. Having now to face again the energy demand of a burgeoning economy, the industry is worryingly discerning the specter of an electricity shortage. A situation of excess demand of energy can be turned into a problem even worse than it already is if the only conceived solution to deal with it is the imposition of quantitative rationing schemes. It is only natural that electrical utilities and the authorities that would be responsible for the enforcement of such measures are much worried about the serious economic and political distress they may cause. But it is well known that quantitative rationing is not the only way to deal with excess-demand situations. There are other solutions which are far more rational, easier to implement and much less costly from both economic and political viewpoints. However, the possibility of dealing with excess demand from the price side has been always rebuffed by the Brazilian electricity industry, based on an unshakable deeply-rooted belief in the irrelevance of prices in the determination of energy demand. The main purpose of this article is to explore an analytical framework that allows a clearer understanding of how the electricity pricing policy may be used to deal with excess-demand situations. The problem is approached with models that assume uncertainty about both capacity and demand. Resorting to Monte Carlo simulations, such models allow an analysis of the possibilities of using prices to eliminate excess demand, for different assumptions about the relevant parameters and exogenous variables. The aggregation level adopted in the stylization of the electricity market is undoubtedly much higher than would be advisable. But the same approach can be easily replicated in more ambitious simulation exercises, based on much less aggregated models of the electricity market, that are beyond the scope of the present article.