Fluxos bilaterais de comércio e blocos regionais: uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the evolution of bilateral trade flows among 44 countries, from 1986 to 1997, focusing on the effects of the preferential trade arrangements (PTAs) joining most of those countries in six important trading blocs. We estimate a gravity equation using as basic determinants geographical distance, GDP, per capita GDP and common borders and language, in addition to dummies representing each trading bloc. We also include a "relative distance" variable in order to prevent the PTA's dummies from accounting for part of the intense trade that usually prevails among countries far from the main economic centres. Finally, we analyse four subperiods - 1986/88, 1989/91, 1992/94 and 1995/97 - to allow an evaluation of the impacts generated by the more recent agreements, such as Nafta and Mercosur.