The duration of Brazilian exports: evidence and determinants

Abstract

This paper analyzes the duration of Brazilian exports and their determinants using disaggregated data for 6-digit HS (Harmonized System). During the period of 1992-2013, the Brazilian trade relations exhibit low rate of survival with median and average of one and three years, respectively. Under a reduced sample, two models were applied to identify determinants of the duration of exports: Cox models with covariates time-variants and a parametric model with unobserved heterogeneity. The results suggest that the economic size (GDP per capita) and geographical proximity with the Brazil are important for longer duration of relations. In addition that new trade agreements, exchange-rate policy favourable to exports and improvement in the quality of the products increase the duration of Brazilian exports.