Uma avaliação dos ganhos dinâmicos do Mercosul usando equilíbrio geral

Abstract

Weevaluate the welfare gains of the Mercosul using a multicountry, multisector and intertemporal computable general equilibrium model with trade and production, increasing returns to scale, imperfect competition and product differentiation to the individual producer level. The base year for the simulations performed is 1992 for which we collected data including the sectoral structure of the economy (based on input-output tables) and bilateral trade flows. These informations were used to calibrate the model to the base year. After that and taking the year 1992, as the benchmark equilibrium we performed two different experiments. The first one comprises the introduction of the new tariff structure prevailing in 1996 according to the Mercosul reduction schedule. The second experiment is a deepening of the previous experiment where we propose a methodology in order to remove the non-trade barriers by forcing the firms to charge the same price within Mercosul. The results appear Uruguay as the potential winner and Argentine as the virtual loser with Brazil as a medium position, in terms of the welfare gains.