Aplicação de um modelo de idade-período-coorte para a atividade econômica no Brasil metropolitano

Abstract

The integration of period and cohort rates is an important method for the projection of economically active population. This paper tries to formalize models of age-period-cohort (APC) by means of log-linear (rate) models. Topological models are applied to index cohorts. This work starts with a review and methodological session focused on the identification problem in APC models. In the empirical part of the paper data from the Monthly Employment Survey in the eighties and nineties are applied to test the methodís fit. The results are similar to less formal cohort/period models. The method proposed in the paper has the advantage of formalization, which improves oneís capability to design different scenarios for economically active population projections.