Impact of return migration to the Northeast on wage distribution: a semiparametric approach

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of return migration on the wage distribution of northeastern migrants according to gender and race. Based on data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) 2004 and 2014, the semiparametric method proposed by DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux (1996) was used to perform counterfactual simulations of income. The main evidence obtained in the years analyzed reached the following conclusions: i) the effect of return migration is greater for migrants with lower income levels; ii) in the analysis by gender and race, men and whites would have a reduction in the distribution of wages if they had chosen not to return to the Northeast; iii) in 2004, if women or non-whites, with higher wages, had decided not to return, they would have had higher wages than with the factual decision; and iv) return migration causes an increase in the income concentration in the Northeast region.