Intermunicipal migration in the Brazilian northeast: are there evidence of migratory selection?

Abstract

Investigations about the migratory dynamics of the labor factor are relevant in economic studies. In the national and international literature there is strong evidence that income differentials exist between migrants and non-migrants, mostly due to unobservable characteristics. In this sense, this article aims to analyze if the Northeastern intermunicipal migrants are positively selected and if there are income differentials in favor of them. Data from the Brazilian Demographic Census were used in the years 2000 and 2010. The model used was a two-stage model proposed by Heckman (1979), with a selection bias correction. The results show that there is a higher probability of migration to be men; to be race /color white; the probability of migration increases with the change of schooling range; the probability of migration is reduced for married couples and heads of household. With regard to income differentials, being male, white color/race or changing schooling, gives higher incomes than their comparatives. The intermunicipal migrants of the other states of the Northeast region earn higher incomes than the intermunicipal migrants from Maranhão, except Piauí. With regard to decomposition, with the exception of the observable characteristics, the unobservables and the selectivity component favor the differentials of labor income in favor of the migrants in both years of the analysis.