Intensive and extensive margins in fertility decisions: evidence for Brazil

Abstract

Reducing the fertility rate below the population replacement level leads to a reduction in population volume and its aging. The aim of this article is to analyze changes in the fertility rate in Brazil by observing this process along the intensive and extensive margins. The parameters of the intensive fertility margin were estimated first by Linear Regression, using the Ordinary Least Squares Model (OEM), and then the Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models were used, enabling a comparison of the parameters estimated by the two models and giving greater robustness to the results. Regarding the extensive margin, its parameters were estimated using the Probit Model. The database includes the Demographic Censuses for the years 1991, 2000 and 2010. The results show evidence of an increase in the fertility rate in the intensive and extensive margins when there is an improvement in investment conditions in the quality of children.