A demanda por energia elétrica no nordeste brasileiro após o racionamento de 2001-2002: previsões de longo prazo

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology to incorporate the effect of rationing in the forecast of electricity demand and estimates short and long run elasticities price and income of three consumption categories (residential, commercial and industrial) for the Northeast of Brazil. We use the equations to forecast demand for the period 2004-2010. To model the consumption recovery in the post-rationing period, we adopted the hypothesis that the demand converges asymptotically to its long run trend.