Impactos setoriais e regionais da Alca: projeções para a economia brasileira

Abstract

In this paper an interregional CGE model is used to analyze the short-run and long-run regional (domestic) and sectoral effects of trade liberalization in a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) agreement. The model simulations provide results in macro, regional and sectoral levels. A positive effect of FTAA liberalization on Brazilian GDP growth and trade balance can be expected. However, the results suggest that the interplay of market forces in the Brazilian economy favors the more developed state of the country (São Paulo). Additionally, sectoral liberalization under FTAA can produce heterogeneous regional impacts.