A escolaridade das crianças brasileiras durante a transição demográfica: aumento no tamanho da coorte versus diminuição no tamanho da família

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate the effects of changing age structure and family size on schooling in Brazil during the last three decades. Over the period, average family size decreased, school-aged children cohorts grew, and schooling levels improved. Until the 1990s, the school-age population was growing, resulting in a strong pressure on the educational system. Recently, lower rates of population growth and smaller cohorts of school-aged children may have contributed to educational improvements. Pooling Pnad data from 1977 to 1999 and Census data from 1970 to 2000, we estimate the effect of family size, cohort size, and parental schooling on school enrollment. All factors have effects in the predicted directions, with the combined variables explaining a large portion of the increased enrollment. Results also show that part of the positive impact of smaller family sizes on enrollment rates was offset by the negative effect of increasing cohort sizes of school-age children.