Uma avaliação do leque das previsões de inflação do Banco Central do Brasil

Abstract

The inflation fan chart published quarterly by the Brazilian Central Bank since 1999 presents information about the predicted uncertainty on future inflation. The fan chart can also be employed to obtain forecasts for the probability that the inflation is above the target. This paper shows how to evaluate the information available in the fan chart concerning its statistical accuracy and economic significance. The evaluation of probability integral transforms and of the predicted probabilities of events indicates that the statistical accuracy decreases with the horizon and that the uncertainty is not included efficiently in the forecasted intervals. Nevertheless, the forecasts for the probability that the inflation is above the target in the next 6 and 12 months are an important input to the process of deciding to change the target interest rate (Selic).