O ajuste da poupança doméstica no Brasil — 1999-2004

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of the saving and investment rates of the Brazilian economy in the period 1999-2004, when the gross domestic savings increased from 15% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 23% of GDP and the country experienced an overshooting in its external adjustment. The paper rejects the argument that there is still a significant effort to be done to achieve sustainable economic growth. The reversal of balance of payments to moderate levels of the current account deficit, combined with some adjustment in the fiscal accounts and a small increase in the private savings, may raise the investment ratio to 25% of GDP up to 2010, expanding the growth potential of the economy. The challenge is how to materialize this potential. The paper describes the data for domestic savings, and disaggregates it into public and private sources combining National Accounts information, which is not widely available, with fiscal accounting data from the Central Bank.