Ciclos eleitorais e política monetária: evidências para o Brasil

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the management of monetary policy in Brazil has been affected by the electoral cycle. Based on the estimation of a Taylor Rule expanded with political variables, it is possible to check if the Central Bank’s decisions were at least partially guided by electoral considerations in the period following the abandonment of the pegged regime. The results suggest that the Selic rate was not influenced by elections, which is in line with international evidence showing the absence of monetary policy political cycles in a cross section of countries. Further, this finding reinforces the perception that the Brazilian Central Bank has enjoyed a true instrument-independent status in the recent period.