Dinâmica da conta de transações correntes do Brasil: avaliação do modelo básico da abordagem intertemporal

Abstract

This article performs an empirical evaluation of the basic model of the current account’s intertemporal approach for Brazil. Ghosh and Ostry (1995) and Senna and Issler (2000) were the pioneers in that literature. Besides the application of the traditional econometric tests to updated data, the main contribution of this article consists in the use of the technique proposed by Kano (2003) to verify the impact on the current account of the transitory and permanent shocks in the net output. In addition to that, through the bootstrapping procedure, confidence intervals for the estimated values of the current account were built with the objective of refining the graphic analysis of the model. The results of the traditional econometric tests suggest a weak performance of the basic model and, contrary to the forecast made by the theoretical model, the impulse-response analysis showed that the permanent shocks in the net output affect the current account significantly