O balanço de pagamentos e o passivo externo do Brasil: perspectivas de médio prazo

Abstract

This paper studies the medium run prospects -up to 2003 for Brazilian foreign liabilities based on an analytical framework that calculates the current account balance required to stabilize the ratio foreign liabilities/exports. We project the behavior of the main current account variables under alternative world trade growth and GDP growth scenarios. Sustainability of Brazil's foreign indebtedness is shown to depend crucially on world trade, which imposes a limit to sustainable domestic growth.