Renda permanente e poupança precaucional: evidências empíricas para o Brasil no passado recente

Abstract

Using structural econometric models and instrumental-variable techniques, we investigate the importance of the precautionary-saving effect in consumption for Brazil. Aditionally, we test the permanent-income hypothesis by estimating the proportion of the population whose consumption is constrained to be equal to current income. Our empirical results show that the precautionary-saving effect in consumption is non-trivial. If we eliminate all macroeconomic uncertainty, consumption will grow at a yearly rate, which is, an average, 1.6 percentage points higher what we usually observe. Regarding permanent-income tests, we find that about 80% of the Brazilian population is constrained to consume their current income, which is high compared to G7-country standards.