Estimação de equações de exportação e importação para o Brasil - 1955/95

Abstract

This paper estimates export and import equations for Brazil using annual data from 1955 to 1995. The econometric procedures account for the nonstationarity of the data, applying cointegration techniques and using an error-correction model framework. The validity of treating conditioning variables as "exogenous" is investigated through proper exogeneity tests. The paper also presents forecasts of export and import growth rates for the period 1997/2000, under alternative scenarios.