Determinantes da balança comercial de produtos agrícolas e agroindustriais do Brasil: 1961/95

Abstract

This paper analyses short and long term effects on the trade balance of agricultural and agro-industrial products in Brazil caused by exchange rate, terms of trade, domestic income and foreign income. Using co-integration analysis and the mechanism of error-correction was found that domestic income, foreign income, terms of trade and exchange rate affected, in this order of importance, the trade balance of agricultural and agro-industrial products in short term. But in long term the exchange rate was the main variable that determinate this trade balance in Brazil.