Produtividade na indústria brasileira: questões metodológicas e novas evidências empíricas

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the recent evolution of Brazilian manufacturing industry productivity. This is a controversial subject due to recent high rates of growth and the lack of reliable productivity data. The article uses data from the Monthly Industrial Survey (Pesquisa Industrial Mensal) conducted by the Brazilian Statistics Institute (IBGE). It shows the possibility of some bias in the sense of either overestimating or underestimating productivity. It is not clear whether the net bias is positive or negative. It is recognized the major growth of productivity in the recession of 'the early 90s with is in some senses similar to the path of productivity growth found in the recession of the early 80s.The main difference emphasized in the text refers to the period that begins in 1993, when production growth was not followed by a recovery of employment, resulting in an exceptional growth of productivity. This behaviour is unique in the history of Brazilian manufacturing industry in the last 25 years. The study also indicates what could have been one of the reasons for the recent growth of productivity the utilization of new methods and techniques of production management. The opening of the Brazilian economy, and also to some extent the recession of early 90s, led firms to promote changes in the organization of production. It is shown that the industrial sectors with higher rates of productivity growth were more advanced in techniques of management of the production process. The study concludes by arguing that productivity in Brazilian manufacturing industry will probably continue to increase in the near future. The negative aspect is undoubtedly the fall in the level of employment, showing the need far compensatory policies for the labour market.