Necessidades de Financiamento do Setor Público: 1991/96 - bases para a discussão do ajuste fiscal no Brasil

Abstract

This paper discusses the evolution of the Brazilian Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSBR) during the 1991/96 period, with special emphasis on what happened in 1995/96. The performance of the several items of revenues and expenditures "above the line" related to the central government and the state companies is presented. It is shown that the 1994 year - to which the figures of the public sector are compared in order to evaluate its imbalance-was clearly atypical, Besides, the differences between the "above" and "below the line" values - represented by methodological adjustments and "errors and omissions" -, was responsible for an important part of the change in the PSBRs in some years. This is specially relevant for 1995, when unexplained factors worsened the PSBRs by 1.8% of the GDP. The article suggests that the fiscal statistics must to be improved, and concludes that the increase of public expenditures of the last years is partially irreversible. This conclusion gives support to the idea that the solution for the current disequilibrium of fiscal accounts is going to be a gradual process.