A sustentabilidade do endividamento externo no Brasil: uma análise de co-integração

Abstract

This article attempts to investigate, empirically, the sustainability of external debt in Brazil. The hypothesis of growth sustainability of external debt is tested through the cointegration between net external debt stock and trade surpluses, by using quarterly data covering the period from 1970/1 to 1992/1. The empirical results indicate that the external debt growth is unsustainable, which has some important implications for the conducting of the Brazilian exchange rate policy.