Instabilidade dos modelos dinâmicos aplicados de Leontief e o processo de planejamento econômico brasileiro

Abstract

The paper presents an important conclusion for economic planning derived from the global instability property presented by Leontief's dynamic models empirically implemented. This can be summarized by the following: in order to reach and to preserve a sustained growth path in an economy, government intervention is required for preventing the iddle capacity generated by the accelleration mechanism. It was suggested that government intervention should take two main forms: 1) acting upon capital goods and basic inputs branches in order to prevent that increasing iddle capacity can check input production required by capital reproduction and 2) calibrating aggregate demand in order both to allow capital goods absortion and to pave the way for improving income distribution. The paper ends with the conclusion that the second form above will probably be more important in Brazil mainly because of our bad income distribution profile.