A estrutura a termo da taxa de juros: uma síntese

Abstract

Initially we discuss the use of the interest rate and the spread between distinct interest rates as predictors of either the level of the economic activity, the change in short-run interest rate, or the rate of inflation. Following this, the yield curve is used to explain the relationship between the short-run and the long-run interest rates, and we also show how to carry out the empirical test of such a theory. The difficulties in the realization of the empirical test are discussed in the light of the experience of both the finned States and Brazil, indicating that the theorectical models based on the present value hypothesis are in general rejected. Finally, we discuss, based on the interest rate term structure, the advantage and disadvantage of having a public debt denominated in the short-run interest rate as against the long-run interest rate.