Um modelo de histerese institucional para a análise da política industrial brasileira

Abstract

This paper aims to draw a sketch of a framework for evaluating Brazilian industrial policy based in a model of institutional hysteresis. The model allows to classify the several types of policies under some criteria which are not normally used in the studies about the subject, namely., a) coherence, i. e. the degree in which policies are consistent whith the institutional structure existent, and b) potency, i. e. the degree in which those policies can induce changes in that structure. Policies which do not satisfy one of those criteria at least will be not effective in producing the results aimed. One of the possible uses of the model suggested here is exactly to identify those ineffective policies in order to prevent the waste of resources which they would imply if they were implemented. The paper also intend to test the proposed model studying the historical experiences of some developed countries as described in Alfred Chandler's main works.