Tendência estocástica do produto no Brasil: efeitos das flutuações da taxa de crescimento da produtividade e da taxa de juro real

Abstract

After a period of continuous and fast economic growth in the 70's the Brazilian economy faced, in the following decade, a period of great instability in its rate of growth. This article assesses to what extent the periods of slow and fast economic growth of Brazil can he explained by two types of exogeneous and persistent shocks: a real interest rate shock and a productivity shock. The econometric methodology adopted is discussed in detail in King et alii (1991) and Mellander et alli (1992) and represents an improvement of estimation and identification procedures usually adopted in Vector Autoregression Models (VAR). Our major findings were the presence n f a stochastic trend in GDP and that this trend is affected by two basic types of shocks: a real interest rate shock and a productivity shock. We also show that a positive real interest rate shock affects the composition of GDP reducing the share of investment.