Mudanças no comportamento do PIB brasileiro: uma abordagem econométrica

Abstract

The nature of the trend in product series - deterministic or stochastic - is investigated with interest because the efficiency of the anticyclical macroeconomic policies depends mostly on it. Its evaluation has been done by the application of conventional unit roots tests, notably represented by Dickey-Fuller tests. In the case of the Brazilian GNP, such an evaluation leads to the conclusion that the predominant trend component is stochastic. So being, anticyclical policies have no effect on long term product. In this paper we apply alternative unit roots tests which permit structural changes in macroeconomic series. The results obtained do not indicate the presence of stochastic trend in Brazilian GNP until 1980. This trend only appears with the economic recession in the first years of the last decade and with the sequence of stabilization plans begun with Cruzado in February 1986.