Agricultura e estabilização macroeconômica no Peru - 1990/93

Abstract

After four years of Fujimori's stabilization program, the Peruvian agriculture is in a crisis that, unlike past crises, is general: the crisis has affected export agriculture, agriculture that competes with imports, and also peasant agriculture, which produces for restricted markets. The principal purpose of this paper is to explain the origin of this crisis and its relation with the stabilization policy. Whit this purpose, a short-run macromodel is built, where the agriculture has an essential role. By means of this model, I describe policies of the present program, its most important outcomes and effects on agriculture. The most relevant conclusion of the paper is that the decline of the real exchange rate and the real wage - both direct outcomes of the economic program, and especially because of their effect on the demand for agricultural goods, both tradables and non tradables - explain, to a great extent, the crisis of the Peruvian agriculture.