Estimativas da duração média do desemprego no Brasil

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to estimate the mean duration of complete spells of unemployment, and analyse the elements that distinguish the experiences of men and women in the labor market, and how it reflects on the unemployment rates. The unemployment rates was determined as a result of probabilities of transition between the three states in which the population can be classified: employment, unemployment and inactivity. The different experiences of men and women are reflected on the probabilities of transition and, consequently, on their respective unemployment rates. In the estimate on the mean duration of complete spells of unemployment, two models are used: in the first one, we suppose that the probabilities of finding solutions to unemployment are independent of the duration, and in the second one, we consider the possibility of duration influencing the probabilities of job finding or withdrawal from the labor force.