A instabilidade dos parâmetros nas equações de exportação brasileiras

Abstract

This paper is concerned with modelling export equations in an Error Correction Mechanism framework We give special attention to a possible parameter instability problem, resulting from the change in the trade policy regime induced by the exporting promotion measures adopted during the mid to late sixties. Fixed coefficient models are estimated, and the Kalman filter, in both classical and bayesian fashions, and the switching regressions technique are used to investigate the question of parameter changes.