Um modelo econométrico do desflorestamento da Amazônia

Abstract

Based upon cross-section data at municipal level, this paper specifies, estimates, and simulates an econometric model of Brazilian Amazon deforestation and its contribution to CO2 emissions. The model consists of three blocks of equations: in the first, deforestation - distinguished by vegetation types -- is determined by major economic activities; in the second, the relationship between vegetation type and biomass content determines carbon dioxide emissions caused by deforestation; finally, in the third, the growth rates of population and of major economic activities are assumed to depend only of their respective spatial densities, thus allowing projections and simulations of the geographic distribution of economic activities, and their effects on deforestation and CO2 emissions.