Políticas de estabilização e eqüidade no Brasil: uma análise contrafactual

Abstract

This paper seeks to underscore the links existing between the different stabilization policies which have been implemented during the period 1981/1983, the balance of payments path and the evolution of the main domestic indicators. To do this, we apply the well-known Bourguignon, Branson and de Mello (1992) CGE model to realize some counterfactual simulations. We show that real devaluation would suffish to fulfill the main target of the Brazilian economic policy during the period: the clearing of the balance of payments. Government's hesitation to devaluate can be explained by its side-effects on the inflation rate, on social indicators and even on GDP growth (we estimate that the devaluation is contractionist in the short-run). Expenditure-reducing policies characterized an overshooting from a balance of payments standpont, had no significant effect on the rate of inflation and provoked a sharp worsening of the social indicators.