Um modelo de correção de erros para a demanda por importações brasileira

Abstract

This paper discusses questions associated to encompassing and cointegration theory, including seasonal cointegration, and presents the estimation of a error correction model for the Brazilian import demand using quarterly data. The estimations are performed not only for total imports, but also for capital and intermediate goods imports. We use both the Johansen procedure and the two step Engle and Granger method to obtain the comic grated vector. The results show that as far as total and capital goods are concerned, previous estimates available in the literature fail to address the key question of dynamic modelling and parameter stability.