Políticas de comércio regionais, multilaterais e unilaterais do Mercosul para o crescimento econômico e a redução da pobreza no Brasil

Abstract

We employ a multiregional and multisectorial general equilibrium model to examine the impacts of regional, unilateral and multilateral trade policy options of Mercosur on the Brazilian economy, including sectoral effects and impacts on the poor. We estimate that the FTAA, a EU–Mercosur agreement and multilateral trade policy changes will be beneficial for Brazil. The agreement with the EU is almost twice as valuable for Brazil as the FTAA. But if the United States and the EU do not permit access to their most highly protected markets, the FTAA will be much more valuable to Brazil than the EU– Mercosur agreement. We estimate that the poorest households gain roughly three to four times the average for Brazil due to the increase in demand for labor-intensive sectors and in the wage rate following trade liberalization.